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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -45.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-45.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$141.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$198.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $9.65M volume · 3,020 trades · since Nov 14, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.61M
Open P&L · 112 positions
−$471.1k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
344d
1027 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -45.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 3 Winner | LOW SELL Spirit @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | LOW SELL Spirit @ 99.9¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
 Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs | LOW SELL Team Spirit @ 99.9¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner | LOW SELL Team Yandex @ 99.9¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | LOW SELL Team Yandex @ 99.9¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winner | LOW SELL BoomBoys @ 99.9¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage | LOW SELL Team Liquid @ 99.9¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs MOUZ (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C | LOW SELL FUT Esports @ 99.9¢ | $21.4k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C | LOW BUY 100 Thieves @ 45¢ | $14.9k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x45720d…