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−$2,600No · avg 53¢ → 20¢ · $1,559+$91No · avg 18¢ → 26¢ · $300
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did -35.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-35.1 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$88.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$42k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russ at 79¢) and the edge is -49.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 41% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 79% · n=1
80–100¢
33% vs 85% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$76.6k
Last 30 days −$1,646 · $2.24M volume · 894 trades · since Sep 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$244.1k
Open P&L · 24 positions
−$167.0k
Closed-position win rate
71%
76 closed
Wallet age · markets
405d
83 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +11.3 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +21.0 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -41.0 pts |
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | -83.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $19.8k | called |
 Dota 2: Iron Wing vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs | LOW BUY Iron Wing @ 41¢ | $14.1k | missed |
 Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $25.5k | missed |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | LOW BUY No @ 84¢ | $10.4k | missed |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $19.2k | called |
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