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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 4.3 wins, so it did +12.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +6.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+12.3 pts
Called / graded
5/6
Expected from price
4.3
Flagged volume
$1.92M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$4k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils at 56¢) and the edge is +6.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
100% vs 56% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 69% · n=4
80–100¢
0% vs 93% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$211.1k
Last 30 days −$33.0k · $23.40M volume · 9,265 trades · since May 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 437 closed
+$1.13M
Open P&L · 110 positions
−$1.33M
Closed-position win rate
86%
437 closed
Wallet age · markets
162d
532 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 5 | 4.3 | +12.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Eagles vs. Jaguars | MED SELL Jaguars @ 90.8¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars | MED BUY Jaguars @ 77¢ | $28.0k | called |
 Indiana vs. Nebraska | LOW BUY Indiana @ 75¢ | $18.4k | called |
 US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov | MED BUY Alexander Zverev @ 95¢ | $46.9k | excluded |
 Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.1k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? | MED SELL Yes @ 88¢ | $33.7k | excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? | MED BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $32.6k | excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24? | MED SELL Yes @ 71¢ | $36.7k | excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $42.3k | called |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $13.5k | called |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $35.6k | excluded |
| Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima | MED BUY Taylor Fritz @ 66¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo | LOW SELL Rafael Jodar @ 99.9¢ | $36.5k | excluded |
| Cincinnati Open: Rafael Jodar vs Alejandro Tabilo | MED BUY Rafael Jodar @ 88¢ | $27.6k | excluded |
 UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Islam Makhachev @ 74¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Mackenzie Dern @ 99.9¢ | $45.7k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Mackenzie Dern @ 91¢ | $20.4k | excluded |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils | LOW BUY Rafael Jodar @ 56¢ | $10.1k | called |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone | LOW SELL Mariano Navone @ 99.9¢ | $94.8k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone | LOW BUY Mariano Navone @ 78¢ | $57.7k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| National Bank Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone | MED BUY Valentin Vacherot @ 62¢ | $69.5k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton | LOW BUY Ben Shelton @ 77¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Spain @ 99.8¢ | $29.8k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 70¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
| Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo | LOW BUY Andrey Rublev @ 81¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
 Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 72¢ | $11.2k | called |
 Wimbledon WTA: Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens | LOW BUY Elise Mertens @ 91¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.6k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert | LOW SELL Zizou Bergs @ 99¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert | LOW BUY Zizou Bergs @ 90¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $10.6k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $44.4k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $34.7k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $13.6k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $13.6k | called |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $21.2k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $70.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $47.6k | called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $59.7k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $29.3k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova | LOW SELL Aryna Sabalenka @ 48¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
| Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova | LOW BUY Aryna Sabalenka @ 89¢ | $28.6k | excluded |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.7k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $24.4k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $30.8k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $25.5k | missed |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $110.0k 4.4× usual |
excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $63.9k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $10.3k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 83¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi | LOW SELL Casper Ruud @ 99.9¢ | $62.9k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
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