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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did -29.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-29.2 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$52.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$15.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $173.4k volume · 7 trades · since Aug 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$35.4k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$19.9k
Closed-position win rate
75%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
74d
5 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.6 | -29.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Umar Nurmagomedov @ 82¢ | $19.9k | missed |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Islam Makhachev @ 76¢ | $33.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x95612d…