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What this means. A wallet put $11.1k on No, at a price that gave it a 85% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.1k
BUY No @ 85¢ · 13,138 shares
Size ≥ $10kEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet CosmicCedar took No (buy) for $11.1k at an average 85¢. At that price the market implied a 85% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.1k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 85¢ means
85%chance the market gave
−553American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 85¢
- Implied odds
- 84.7%
- Size
- $11.1k
- Placed
- Aug 08, 02:54 EDT
- Market close
- Aug 12, 20:09 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- CosmicCedar
- Tx
- 0xfc0c486b…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-84.7 pts
expected 0.8 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -85 ptsNo price · entry 85¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢ | $19.2k | called |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.7¢ | $42.3k | called |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | LOW SELL No @ 28¢ | $11.1k | called |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | LOW BUY No @ 79¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $16.6k | missed |
| Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $25.5k | missed |