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What this means. A wallet put $29.1k on Ian Machado Garry, at a price that gave it a 24% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$29.1k
BUY Ian Machado Garry @ 24¢ · 120,640 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideSports
What happened
Wallet 0xb3f0…5c25 took Ian Machado Garry (buy) for $29.1k at an average 24¢. At that price the market implied a 24% chance for that side. The market resolved Islam Makhachev, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $29.1k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 24¢ means
24%chance the market gave
+315American odds
$1.00paid per share if Ian Machado Garry wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 24¢
- Implied odds
- 24.1%
- As American odds
- +315 no vig
- Size
- $29.1k
- Placed
- Aug 15, 06:57 EDT
- Market close
- Aug 15, 17:00 EDT
- Result
- Islam Makhachev
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0xb3f0…5c25
- Tx
- 0x996f4d56…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-24.1 pts
expected 0.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -24 ptsIan Machado Garry price · entry 24¢ · resolved Islam Makhachev
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $172.1k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
Same game on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| YES Islam Makhachev | $37.9k | 74¢ | 69d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $15.7k | 74¢ | 69d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $15.1k | 74¢ | 69d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $11.1k | 74¢ | 69d ago |
| YES Fight goes the distance | $42.1k | 52¢ | 69d ago |
| YES Ian Machado Garry by Decision | $22.4k | 16¢ | 69d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $10.3k | 74¢ | 69d ago |
| YES Islam Makhachev | $19.9k | 74¢ | 69d ago |