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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did -54.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-54.7 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.5
Flagged volume
$759.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$291.6k
Last 30 days +$37.2k · $2.68M volume · 107 trades · since Aug 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$324.3k
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$25.9k
Closed-position win rate
89%
9 closed
Wallet age · markets
74d
15 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -54.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev | MED BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 55¢ | $35.7k | missed |
 UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $172.1k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Islam Makhachev @ 77¢ | $27.3k | called |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Islam Makhachev @ 77¢ | $31.5k | called |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Islam Makhachev @ 77¢ | $73.5k | called |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils | MED SELL Rafael Jodar @ 99.9¢ | $266.1k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils | MED BUY Rafael Jodar @ 58¢ | $152.9k 2.1× usual |
called |
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