← Wallets
+$38.0kYes · avg 52¢ → 84¢ · $100.9k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did -13.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-13.2 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$458.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$15k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils at 55¢) and the edge is -27.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 37% · n=2
40–60¢
100% vs 56% · n=2
60–80¢
0% vs 80% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$68.1k
Last 30 days −$16.2k · $6.30M volume · 622 trades · since Oct 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$602.5k
Open P&L · 41 positions
−$650.2k
Closed-position win rate
76%
212 closed
Wallet age · markets
739d
251 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 2 | 2.7 | -13.2 pts |
History
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