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+$528Buccaneers · avg 58¢ → 58¢ · $61.7k+$37Texas Tech · avg 52¢ → 52¢ · $3,894−$30Florida Atlantic · avg 52¢ → 52¢ · $3,137
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did +28.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +23.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+28.7 pts
Called / graded
6/7
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$829.6k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$43k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays at 39¢) and the edge is +23.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
75% vs 51% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 80% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$283.9k
Last 30 days +$342.2k · $12.18M volume · 1,799 trades · since May 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.96M
Open P&L · 409 positions
−$2.32M
Closed-position win rate
97%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
157d
902 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 6 | 4.0 | +28.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trail Blazers vs. Kings | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 80¢ | $18.2k | called |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $10.7k | called |
| Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 50¢ | $37.9k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 233.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 50¢ | $25.8k | called |
 Spread: Panthers (-3.5) | LOW BUY Buccaneers @ 58¢ | $61.2k 2.6× usual |
pending |
| Spread: Bears (-5.5) | LOW BUY Patriots @ 49¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 60.5 | MED BUY Under @ 52¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 50.5 | MED BUY Over @ 50¢ | $108.3k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
 Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | MED BUY Yes @ 26¢ | $66.9k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? | MED BUY No @ 60¢ | $115.8k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) | LOW BUY FK Shakhtar Donetsk @ 45¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 51¢ | $11.7k | called |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Knicks @ 50¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
 Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina | LOW BUY Appalachian State @ 52¢ | $23.9k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Seahawks | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 29¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Jaguars | LOW BUY Jaguars @ 77¢ | $37.2k | called |
| Indiana vs. Nebraska | LOW BUY Indiana @ 50¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| San Jose State vs. Hawai'i | MED BUY Hawaii @ 57¢ | $81.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Rams @ 74¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 50¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Raiders vs. Saints | LOW BUY Saints @ 65¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Bengals vs. Texans | LOW BUY Texans @ 58¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
 Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays | LOW BUY Toronto Blue Jays @ 39¢ | $12.1k | called |
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