i400

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -81.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?+$1,411No · avg 92.1¢ → 95.7¢ · $37.7k China x Philippines military clash before 2027?+$3,640No · avg 68¢ → 78¢ · $30.0k Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?−$1,652No · avg 77¢ → 56¢ · $4,306 Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?+$53No · avg 84¢ → 86¢ · $3,888 Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027?+$152No · avg 92.1¢ → 97.1¢ · $2,948 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?+$24No · avg 93.8¢ → 94.8¢ · $2,405 Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?+$62No · avg 93¢ → 95.5¢ · $2,388 Modi out by December 31, 2026?+$88No · avg 91.7¢ → 96.4¢ · $1,816

Price-adjusted edge

-81.9 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$60.4k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±38.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$88.4k

Last 30 days −$2,522 · $6.11M volume · 13,516 trades · since Jun 09, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$907.3k

Open P&L · 124 positions

−$135.5k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

137d

799 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.8	-81.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$14.0k	82%	74d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢	$20.8k	99%	90d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by July 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢	$12.6k	1%	105d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$13.0k	13%	121d ago	excluded

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?missed

BUY No @ 82¢$14.0k

LOW i400 · 74d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.3¢$20.8k

LOW i400 · 90d ago

Trump out as President by July 31?excluded

SELL No @ 99.2¢$12.6k

LOW i400 · 105d ago

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?excluded

SELL Yes @ 87¢$13.0k

LOW i400 · 121d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xa18c5cf2bc6eec389d2d512582ae14654b99d792"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xa18c5cf2bc6eec389d2d512582ae14654b99d792.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xa18c5c…