Weekly report card
Week 2026-43
Oct 19, 00:00 EDT – Oct 25, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
+1.9 pts
Called
175/314
Expected from price
168.9
Std. error
±2.7
In week 2026-43, 314 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 175 times; entry prices implied 168.9. Whales beat the price by +1.9 pts. One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 309 | 171 | 165.2 | +1.9 pts |
| Crypto | 5 | 4 | 3.8 | +5.0 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
called23h ago
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage
BUYMovistar KOI@ 19¢→Movistar KOI
$14.0k · YYYYY999implied 19%
called11h ago
Mavericks vs. Pacers
BUYMavericks@ 31¢→Mavericks
$39.9k · YYYYY999implied 31%
called2d ago
Guangzhou 2: Liam Broady vs Akira Santillan
BUYAkira Santillan@ 34¢→Akira Santillan
$33.8k · kalmalimplied 34%
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20? | MED BUY No @ 60¢ | $434.5k 10.3× usual |
called |
 Cali: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Gonzalo Bueno | MED Santiago Rodriguez Taverna UP +22.0 pts | $374.0k 24h vol |
called |
 Raptors vs. Wizards | LOW Raptors UP +10.0 pts $49.2k whale money behind it | $372.2k 24h vol |
called |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | HIGH BUY Grizzlies @ 54¢ | $318.5k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Bucks vs. Wizards | HIGH BUY Bucks @ 40¢ | $252.7k 2.2× usual |
missed |
 Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $216.6k | called |
 Spread: Bears (-3.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 56¢ | $179.9k 4.3× usual |
missed |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | LOW Pelicans UP +10.0 pts $53.2k whale money behind it | $172.9k 24h vol |
missed |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $158.8k | called |
| Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | MED BUY No @ 76¢ | $142.6k | missed |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | HIGH BUY Hornets @ 44¢ | $122.8k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Bears (-2.5) | MED BUY Patriots @ 46¢ | $119.5k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? | MED BUY No @ 80¢ | $116.3k | called |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | MED BUY Grizzlies @ 55¢ | $115.8k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $115.0k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 234.5 | LOW Over DOWN -10.0 pts | $113.2k 24h vol |
called |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $110.7k 2.6× usual |
called |
 Red Wings vs. Canucks | HIGH BUY Red Wings @ 61¢ | $103.4k 2.5× usual |
called |
| FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 65¢ | $94.3k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5) | LOW Trail Blazers UP +11.0 pts $16.9k whale money behind it | $93.4k 24h vol |
missed |
| Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2026-10-22? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $92.0k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Hawks vs. Magic | MED BUY Magic @ 56¢ | $87.7k | missed |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | LOW BUY Pelicans @ 43¢ | $86.0k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | MED BUY Commanders @ 23¢ | $84.6k 2.0× usual |
missed |
 Bitcoin Up or Down on October 22? | HIGH Up DOWN -45.5 pts | $76.0k 24h vol |
called |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 22? | HIGH Yes DOWN -27.4 pts | $75.3k 24h vol |
called |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 23? | LOW Yes UP +10.1 pts | $74.4k 24h vol |
called |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | MED BUY Pelicans @ 49¢ | $73.5k | missed |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $72.4k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY No @ 57¢ | $71.2k | missed |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 22? | LOW Yes DOWN -11.8 pts | $70.4k 24h vol |
called |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $66.5k | called |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) | LOW BUY Grizzlies @ 53¢ | $64.8k | called |
 Will Torino FC win on 2026-10-23? | MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $63.6k | called |
| Mavericks vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 79¢ | $62.7k | called |
| Spread: Wizards (-4.5) | MED BUY Bucks @ 50¢ | $62.4k | missed |
| Pistons vs. Heat | LOW BUY Pistons @ 52¢ | $61.8k | called |
| Hornets vs. Nets | MED BUY Hornets @ 53¢ | $60.5k | called |
 Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) | MED BUY Golden State Valkyries @ 49¢ | $60.0k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5 | HIGH BUY Under @ 40¢ | $59.1k | called |
| Almaty Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Sho Shimabukuro | MED BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 91.6¢ | $55.7k | called |
 LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | MED BUY Team Liquid @ 73¢ | $55.4k | missed |
| FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 49¢ | $55.2k | called |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | MED BUY Nuggets @ 51¢ | $54.8k | missed |
| Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $54.6k | called |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | MED BUY Knicks @ 45¢ | $54.2k | missed |
| Suns vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 58¢ | $53.7k | called |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 49¢ | $52.8k | called |
| Kings vs. Clippers | MED BUY Clippers @ 64¢ | $51.1k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Spread: 76ers (-3.5) | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 50¢ | $50.9k | missed |
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $48.8k | missed |
| Mavericks vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 77¢ | $48.1k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | MED BUY 76ers @ 52¢ | $47.6k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $47.4k | missed |
| Sharks vs. Senators | MED BUY Sharks @ 44¢ | $46.1k | called |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 62¢ | $45.9k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $45.6k | missed |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $45.0k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Warriors (-4.5) | LOW BUY Grizzlies @ 49¢ | $42.0k | called |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $40.4k | called |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers | MED BUY Mavericks @ 31¢ | $39.9k | called |
| Spread: Heat (-1.5) | LOW BUY Heat @ 51¢ | $39.5k | missed |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 62¢ | $39.0k | missed |
| Raptors vs. Wizards | MED BUY Raptors @ 74¢ | $38.9k | called |
| Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) | MED BUY Real Madrid CF @ 43¢ | $38.7k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $38.5k | called |
 Valorant: CGN Esports vs Joblife (BO3) - Project Blender Phase 2 Group A | LOW BUY CGN Esports @ 51¢ | $38.3k | called |
| Commanders vs. 49ers | MED SELL 49ers @ 76¢ | $38.0k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Clippers vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 50¢ | $37.9k | missed |
| Spread: Hawks (-2.5) | MED BUY Hawks @ 51¢ | $37.0k | called |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | MED BUY Pelicans @ 50¢ | $36.9k | missed |
| Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-22? | MED BUY No @ 44¢ | $36.3k | called |
| Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 42¢ | $36.0k | called |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hawks @ 56¢ | $35.8k | called |
 Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs | LOW BUY Sinners @ 54¢ | $34.2k | called |
| Spread: Bears (-2.5) | MED BUY Bears @ 54¢ | $34.2k | called |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | LOW BUY Bulls @ 50¢ | $34.1k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | MED BUY Bucks @ 53¢ | $34.0k 2.0× usual |
missed |
| Guangzhou 2: Liam Broady vs Akira Santillan | HIGH BUY Akira Santillan @ 34¢ | $33.8k | called |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 52¢ | $33.7k | missed |
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers | MED BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 64¢ | $33.6k | called |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $32.8k | called |
 Spread: Liberty (-8.5) | MED BUY Liberty @ 52¢ | $32.0k | called |
| FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ | $30.9k | missed |
| Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $30.8k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $30.8k | missed |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | LOW BUY Raptors @ 50¢ | $30.7k | called |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | MED BUY Grizzlies @ 39¢ | $30.6k | called |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | LOW BUY Dplus KIA @ 61¢ | $30.5k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $30.4k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5 | MED BUY Over @ 62¢ | $30.4k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Metizport (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | LOW BUY Metizport @ 47¢ | $30.1k | missed |
| Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5 | MED BUY Over @ 58¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| Spread: Warriors (-4.5) | LOW BUY Warriors @ 51¢ | $29.6k | missed |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) | MED BUY Magic @ 51¢ | $29.5k | missed |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | LOW BUY Raptors @ 50¢ | $29.4k | called |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY 76ers @ 38¢ | $29.2k | called |
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) | MED BUY FC Bayern München @ 96.5¢ | $29.2k | called |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hawks @ 57¢ | $28.5k | called |
| Torino FC vs. AC Monza: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 48¢ | $28.3k | missed |
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