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−$0Yes · avg 50¢ → 50¢ · $526+$7Yes · avg 24¢ → 28¢ · $46
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 14. The prices it paid implied about 8.0 wins, so it did +7.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 14 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +3.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.2 pts
Called / graded
9/14
Expected from price
8.0
Flagged volume
$2.61M
Sample size14 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$685k14 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? at 43¢) and the edge is +3.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
67% vs 48% · n=9
60–80¢
75% vs 69% · n=4
80–100¢
0% vs 89% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$37.7k
Last 30 days +$697.6k · $36.54M volume · 11,538 trades · since Jun 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$7.33M
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$129
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
138d
1598 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 14 | 9 | 8.0 | +7.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 47¢ | $57.5k | missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $87.0k 2.3× usual |
missed |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $22.9k | missed |
 Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) | MED BUY FC Barcelona @ 46¢ | $40.6k | called |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $34.1k | excluded |
 Will Spain win on 2026-10-06? | MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $106.0k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $141.2k 3.8× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-09-26? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $333.0k 8.9× usual |
called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-09-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $145.7k 3.9× usual |
called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-09-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $205.0k 5.5× usual |
called |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $21.6k | called |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | MED BUY No @ 55¢ | $57.2k | missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13? | MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $107.3k 2.9× usual |
called |
 Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 89¢ | $11.5k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 | HIGH BUY Over @ 30¢ | $183.6k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 75¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 90.5¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | HIGH BUY Under @ 49¢ | $914.4k 24.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | LOW BUY Jordan @ 55¢ | $14.3k | called |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 47¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) | LOW BUY Uruguay @ 68¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) | LOW BUY Tunisia @ 51¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $32.3k | called |
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