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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did -17.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.0 pts
Called / graded
2/6
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$6.07M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$9k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) at 53¢) and the edge is -29.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 40% · n=1
40–60¢
40% vs 52% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.60M
Last 30 days −$2.00M · $11.75M volume · 295 trades · since Sep 11, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$442.8k
Open P&L · 6 positions
−$1.16M
Closed-position win rate
57%
23 closed
Wallet age · markets
43d
29 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 2 | 3.0 | -17.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5 | MED BUY Under @ 50¢ | $248.8k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 50¢ | $23.3k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Heat | HIGH BUY Pistons @ 55¢ | $424.3k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Knicks vs. Celtics | HIGH BUY Celtics @ 58¢ | $346.2k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 240.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $28.1k | excluded |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 239.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $19.6k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | HIGH BUY Cavaliers @ 45¢ | $526.7k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Warriors vs. Lakers | HIGH BUY Warriors @ 33¢ | $103.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Lakers (-6.5) | MED BUY Warriors @ 50¢ | $108.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 51¢ | $48.7k | excluded |
| Suns vs. Trail Blazers | MED BUY Trail Blazers @ 60¢ | $166.4k | excluded |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | MED BUY Pelicans @ 71¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Mavericks vs. Rockets | HIGH BUY Rockets @ 80¢ | $262.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Bucks vs. Wizards | LOW BUY Bucks @ 58¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Pacers (-2.5) | MED BUY Pelicans @ 51¢ | $133.0k | excluded |
| Pacers vs. Pelicans | MED BUY Pelicans @ 44¢ | $212.0k | excluded |
 Panthers vs. Senators | MED BUY Panthers @ 51¢ | $120.1k | excluded |
| Hornets vs. Nets | HIGH BUY Nets @ 48¢ | $943.7k 8.3× usual |
excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 241.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 50¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) | LOW BUY Grizzlies @ 53¢ | $64.8k | called |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies | HIGH BUY Grizzlies @ 54¢ | $318.5k 2.8× usual |
called |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat | MED BUY Heat @ 54¢ | $221.1k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 52¢ | $14.4k | missed |
| Spread: Heat (-1.5) | LOW BUY Heat @ 51¢ | $39.5k | missed |
| Bucks vs. Wizards | HIGH BUY Bucks @ 40¢ | $252.7k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Wizards (-4.5) | LOW BUY Bucks @ 52¢ | $26.0k | missed |
 US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov | MED BUY Alexander Zverev @ 82¢ | $36.8k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov | HIGH BUY Alexander Zverev @ 82¢ | $1.29M 11.3× usual |
excluded |
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