← Wallets
+$459Hornets · avg 42¢ → 42¢ · $22.3k+$208Hawks · avg 52¢ → 52¢ · $19.6k+$148Under · avg 49¢ → 50¢ · $14.6k+$537Texans · avg 51¢ → 55¢ · $7,353+$527Aaron Pico · avg 53¢ → 57¢ · $6,737+$247Saints · avg 52¢ → 55¢ · $5,379+$54Broncos · avg 49¢ → 50¢ · $5,350+$51Golden State Valkyries · avg 34¢ → 34¢ · $3,515
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 5.5 wins, so it did -14.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-14.0 pts
Called / graded
4/11
Expected from price
5.5
Flagged volume
$484.4k
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$97k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (France vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 41¢) and the edge is -21.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 31% · n=1
40–60¢
43% vs 48% · n=7
60–80¢
33% vs 62% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$153.2k
Last 30 days −$363 · $24.75M volume · 27,474 trades · since Jul 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$5.96M
Open P&L · 471 positions
−$5.42M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
106d
1046 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 11 | 4 | 5.5 | -14.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Rockets vs. Spurs | MED BUY Rockets @ 36¢ | $66.6k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 48¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Spurs (-5.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 52¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hawks @ 57¢ | $28.5k | called |
| Bulls vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Bucks @ 52¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 77¢ | $12.9k | called |
| Trail Blazers vs. Kings | LOW BUY Kings @ 26¢ | $15.1k | missed |
| Raptors vs. Wizards | LOW BUY Wizards @ 31¢ | $16.5k | missed |
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers | LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 60¢ | $17.7k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 44¢ | $26.4k | missed |
| Hornets vs. Nets | LOW BUY Nets @ 47¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | LOW BUY Bulls @ 50¢ | $34.1k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Hornets vs. Nets | LOW BUY Nets @ 48¢ | $24.0k | missed |
 Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 49¢ | $14.5k | pending |
| 76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 62¢ | $31.0k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | MED BUY Knicks @ 62¢ | $45.9k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | LOW BUY Bears @ 50¢ | $11.0k | called |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 50¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | LOW BUY Eagles @ 51¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 44¢ | $15.2k | called |
 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 65¢ | $11.4k | missed |
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 41¢ | $16.3k | called |
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