BrotherObama

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 20 of 28. The prices it paid implied about 14.1 wins, so it did +21.0 pts better than the market expected. That's a proven record: +21.0 pts vs the price over 28 bets. Without its single best bet: +19.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

+21.0 pts

Called / graded

20/28

Expected from price

14.1

Flagged volume

$2.47M

Sample size28 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.4 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$68k

28 graded bets in the order they resolved · 20 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Wild vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 at 47¢) and the edge is +19.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

20–40¢

0% vs 38% · n=1

40–60¢

74% vs 51% · n=27

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$173.6k

Last 30 days +$84.2k · $39.01M volume · 3,633 trades · since Jul 06, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied	When	Result
LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	MED BUY CTBC Flying Oyster @ 28¢	$11.6k	28%	7h ago	excluded
Spread: Hawks (-2.5)	LOW BUY Hawks @ 51¢	$10.0k	51%	8h ago	excluded
Army vs. Tulsa	LOW BUY Army @ 50¢	$10.0k	50%	8h ago	called
Bulls vs. Bucks	LOW SELL Bucks @ 55¢	$15.3k	45%	8h ago	excluded
LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	LOW BUY G2 Esports @ 40¢	$10.0k	40%	8h ago	excluded
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5	MED BUY Over @ 51¢	$45.0k 2.3× usual	51%	10h ago	missed
Bulls vs. Bucks	LOW BUY Bucks @ 54¢	$15.0k	54%	10h ago	excluded
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	MED BUY Karmine Corp @ 34¢	$10.0k	34%	10h ago	excluded
Army vs. Tulsa	LOW BUY Army @ 49¢	$20.0k	49%	10h ago	called
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	LOW BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 82¢	$15.0k	82%	11h ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 77¢	$19.2k	77%	12h ago	excluded
LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	MED BUY Gen.G @ 77¢	$22.0k	77%	13h ago	excluded
Spread: Hawks (-2.5)	LOW BUY Hawks @ 52¢	$15.0k	52%	13h ago	called
Timberwolves vs. Magic	LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 50¢	$15.0k	50%	13h ago	called
Nuggets vs. Thunder	LOW SELL Nuggets @ 42¢	$11.0k	58%	1d ago	excluded
Spread: Liberty (-8.5)	MED BUY Liberty @ 52¢	$32.0k	52%	1d ago	called
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)	LOW BUY 76ers @ 52¢	$16.0k	52%	1d ago	called
Hurricanes vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5	LOW BUY Over @ 53¢	$15.0k	53%	1d ago	called
Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 50.5	LOW BUY Under @ 49¢	$20.0k	49%	1d ago	missed
Sharks vs. Senators: O/U 6.5	LOW BUY Over @ 49¢	$20.0k	49%	1d ago	called
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs ShindeN (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Group B	LOW BUY BESTIA @ 48¢	$13.0k	48%	1d ago	excluded
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	LOW BUY Solary @ 44¢	$10.0k	44%	1d ago	excluded
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs	LOW BUY Solary @ 44¢	$20.0k	44%	1d ago	missed
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)	LOW BUY Lakers @ 52¢	$15.0k	52%	2d ago	called
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5	LOW BUY Over @ 48¢	$15.0k	48%	2d ago	excluded
Timberwolves vs. Heat	LOW BUY Heat @ 54¢	$15.0k	54%	2d ago	excluded
Spread: Lakers (-6.5)	LOW BUY Lakers @ 51¢	$15.0k	51%	2d ago	called
Panthers vs. Senators	LOW BUY Senators @ 51¢	$20.0k	51%	2d ago	called
Spread: New Mexico State (-2.5)	LOW BUY New Mexico State @ 53¢	$12.0k	53%	2d ago	called
Map Handicap: BCA (-1.5) vs aimclub (+1.5)	MED BUY Betclic Apogee Esports @ 56¢	$25.0k	56%	2d ago	excluded
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 53¢	$17.6k	53%	3d ago	called
Wild vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5	MED BUY Over @ 47¢	$26.0k	47%	3d ago	called
Cowboys vs. Packers	LOW BUY Packers @ 50¢	$17.0k	50%	5d ago	called
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	MED SELL Yes @ 91.5¢	$25.4k	9%	5d ago	excluded
Cowboys vs. Packers	LOW BUY Packers @ 51¢	$15.0k	51%	5d ago	called
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-18?	LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢	$15.0k	54%	5d ago	excluded
Texans vs. Jaguars	LOW BUY Jaguars @ 55¢	$15.0k	55%	5d ago	excluded
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner	LOW BUY Team WE @ 40¢	$15.0k	40%	6d ago	excluded
LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	LOW BUY Karmine Corp @ 65¢	$22.0k	65%	8d ago	excluded
LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	MED SELL Cloud9 @ 36¢	$55.9k 2.8× usual	64%	8d ago	excluded
LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	HIGH BUY Cloud9 @ 32¢	$50.0k 2.5× usual	32%	8d ago	excluded
LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Playoffs	HIGH BUY Team WE @ 45¢	$101.6k 5.2× usual	45%	8d ago	excluded
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	LOW BUY G2 Esports @ 53¢	$21.0k	53%	13d ago	excluded
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	MED BUY G2 Esports @ 54¢	$40.0k 2.0× usual	54%	13d ago	missed
Spread: Bengals (-2.5)	MED BUY Jaguars @ 50¢	$48.0k 2.4× usual	50%	19d ago	excluded
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	HIGH SELL Atlanta Braves @ 82¢	$342.0k 17.3× usual	18%	23d ago	excluded
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	MED BUY Atlanta Braves @ 49¢	$218.1k 11.1× usual	49%	23d ago	excluded
Spread: Rams (-2.5)	MED BUY Rams @ 49¢	$98.8k 5.0× usual	49%	26d ago	missed
New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	MED BUY New York Yankees @ 45¢	$40.0k 2.0× usual	45%	34d ago	excluded
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner	MED BUY JD Gaming @ 64¢	$29.0k	64%	34d ago	excluded
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	LOW BUY Shopify Rebellion @ 36¢	$15.0k	36%	35d ago	excluded
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18?	LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢	$15.0k	38%	35d ago	missed
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 58¢	$20.0k	58%	35d ago	called
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Over @ 56¢	$20.0k	56%	35d ago	called
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels	MED BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 51¢	$50.0k 2.5× usual	51%	36d ago	excluded
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 54¢	$17.0k	54%	37d ago	called
Broncos vs. Chiefs	LOW BUY Broncos @ 46¢	$22.0k	46%	39d ago	missed
Broncos vs. Chiefs	LOW BUY Broncos @ 45¢	$15.0k	45%	39d ago	missed
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13?	MED BUY Yes @ 52¢	$28.6k	52%	40d ago	called
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	LOW BUY Anyones Legend @ 53¢	$20.0k	53%	41d ago	excluded
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	MED SELL Anyones Legend @ 48¢	$88.2k 4.5× usual	52%	41d ago	excluded
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	MED BUY Anyones Legend @ 32¢	$21.0k	32%	41d ago	excluded
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	MED BUY Anyones Legend @ 50¢	$100.0k 5.1× usual	50%	41d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	MED BUY T1 @ 49¢	$30.0k	49%	41d ago	excluded
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner	MED BUY GIANTX @ 49¢	$31.0k	49%	42d ago	excluded
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs	LOW BUY Dplus KIA @ 59¢	$10.0k	59%	50d ago	excluded
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs	MED SELL BNK FEARX @ 75¢	$41.2k 2.1× usual	25%	50d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Playoffs	LOW BUY T1 @ 37¢	$20.0k	37%	51d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Flavio Cobolli	LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 48¢	$15.0k	48%	52d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW SELL MOUZ @ 47¢	$23.5k	53%	53d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW BUY MOUZ @ 48¢	$15.0k	48%	53d ago	called
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Playoffs	MED BUY Dplus KIA @ 39¢	$35.0k	39%	54d ago	excluded
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	LOW BUY LGD Gaming @ 36¢	$15.0k	36%	55d ago	excluded
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Play-In	LOW SELL HANJIN BRION @ 39¢	$19.4k	61%	58d ago	excluded
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group	MED BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 32¢	$22.8k	32%	71d ago	excluded
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	LOW SELL Top Esports @ 62¢	$19.0k	38%	77d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group	LOW BUY Gen.G @ 50¢	$12.0k	50%	79d ago	excluded
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group	LOW BUY T1 @ 37¢	$11.4k	37%	84d ago	excluded

BrotherObama

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

By category

History

Share this record