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+$13.1kOver · avg 51¢ → 55¢ · $208.3k+$3,924Yes · avg 36¢ → 48¢ · $16.2k+$68Watford FC · avg 56¢ → 57¢ · $2,598+$2Under · avg 60¢ → 60¢ · $255+$8Under · avg 40¢ → 44¢ · $92−$0FC Okzhetpes · avg 51¢ → 51¢ · $15−$2Yes · avg 57¢ → 49¢ · $14+$0Yes · avg 46¢ → 48¢ · $9
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.1 wins, so it did -1.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.0 pts
Called / graded
4/8
Expected from price
4.1
Flagged volume
$1.56M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$65k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Sharks vs. Senators at 44¢) and the edge is -9.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
57% vs 48% · n=7
60–80¢
0% vs 69% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$388.8k
Last 30 days +$313.7k · $34.65M volume · 12,180 trades · since May 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$7.70M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$4.47M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
165d
2550 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 4 | 4.1 | -1.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $188.4k 6.5× usual |
pending |
 Torino FC vs. AC Monza: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 48¢ | $28.3k | missed |
 Sharks vs. Senators | MED BUY Sharks @ 44¢ | $46.1k | called |
 FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 82¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
 Levante UD vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 81¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 49¢ | $33.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5) | LOW BUY LASK Linz @ 46¢ | $15.4k | called |
| FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 49¢ | $55.2k | called |
 Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-09-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $12.9k | called |
 US Open WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Coco Gauff | LOW BUY Mirra Andreeva @ 56¢ | $29.2k | excluded |
 US Open ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov | LOW BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime @ 68¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
 France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 50¢ | $44.0k | excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 53¢ | $16.9k | called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 47¢ | $162.6k 5.6× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $66.4k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $18.2k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $138.1k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 50¢ | $53.7k | excluded |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 93.9¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 53¢ | $19.4k | excluded |
| New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Under @ 53¢ | $30.2k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $43.0k | excluded |
| England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Over @ 41¢ | $43.2k | excluded |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $176.5k 6.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $31.6k | missed |
| Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 56¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $124.0k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 57¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 54¢ | $12.5k | missed |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $11.5k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $41.6k | excluded |
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