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What this means. A wallet put $96.1k on Over, at a price that gave it a 49% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (+0.2 pts over 60 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$96.1k
BUY Over @ 49¢ · 194,538 shares in 6 fills
Size ≥ $10k6 fills in 1hProven wallet4.9× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet Zzzz87 took Over (buy) for $96.1k at an average 49¢. At that price the market implied a 49% chance for that side. The market resolved Under, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $96.1k+1
6 fills within 1h+1
Proven wallet (positive graded edge)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 49¢ means
49%chance the market gave
+102American odds
$1.00paid per share if Over wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 49¢
- Implied odds
- 49.4%
- As American odds
- +102 no vig
- Size
- $96.1k
- Placed
- Oct 24, 06:29 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 24, 07:30 EDT
- Result
- Under
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Zzzz87
- Tx
- 0xdc96cd9d…
This wallet's graded record
36/60+0.2 pts
expected 35.9 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -49 ptsOver price · entry 49¢ · resolved Under
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 52¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 50¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | LOW Over UP +10.0 pts $167.0k whale money behind it | $281.8k 24h vol |
excluded |
| Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 50¢ | $23.0k | called |
| Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 52¢ | $10.9k | called |
| Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 47¢ | $57.5k | missed |
Same game on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| YES Aston Villa | $11.9k | 91¢ | 13h ago |
| YES Aston Villa | $11.3k | 89¢ | 13h ago |
| NO Tie | $18.1k | 89¢ | 13h ago |
| YES Aston Villa | $10.1k | 81¢ | 13h ago |
| NO Manchester City | $14.4k | 95¢ | 13h ago |
| YES Aston Villa | $24.5k | 71¢ | 13h ago |
| NO Manchester City | $19.9k | 93¢ | 13h ago |
| YES Aston Villa | $10.4k | 55¢ | 13h ago |