fraagen

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -17.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Como 1907 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 10.5 Total Corners+$506Over · avg 43¢ → 48¢ · $5,537 Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage+$63G2 · avg 43¢ → 44¢ · $5,481

Price-adjusted edge

-17.7 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.5

Flagged volume

$86.1k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$194.9k

Last 30 days −$183.5k · $1.42M volume · 561 trades · since Oct 06, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$247.7k

Open P&L · 51 positions

−$433.0k

Closed-position win rate

100%

40 closed

Wallet age · markets

18d

91 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	1	1.5	-17.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5	LOW BUY Under @ 52¢	$10.9k	52%	5h ago	called
Stade Brestois 29 vs. OGC Nice: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	LOW BUY Under @ 54¢	$27.0k 2.3× usual	54%	21h ago	excluded
Hurricanes vs. Oilers	LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 56¢	$11.2k	56%	1d ago	excluded
AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Under @ 45¢	$14.8k	45%	2d ago	missed
Wild vs. Oilers	LOW BUY Wild @ 47¢	$12.2k	47%	3d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D	LOW BUY MIBR @ 56¢	$10.0k	56%	10d ago	missed

Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5called

BUY Under @ 52¢$10.9k

LOW fraagen · 5h ago

Stade Brestois 29 vs. OGC Nice: O/U 9.5 Total Cornersexcluded

BUY Under @ 54¢$27.0k

LOW fraagen · 21h ago

Hurricanes vs. Oilersexcluded

BUY Hurricanes @ 56¢$11.2k

LOW fraagen · 1d ago

AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5missed

BUY Under @ 45¢$14.8k

LOW fraagen · 2d ago

Wild vs. Oilersexcluded

BUY Wild @ 47¢$12.2k

LOW fraagen · 3d ago

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group Dmissed

BUY MIBR @ 56¢$10.0k

LOW fraagen · 10d ago

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