Weekly report card
Week 2026-01
Dec 29, 00:00 EST – Jan 04, 23:59 EST · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-6.1 pts
Called
104/178
Expected from price
114.8
Std. error
±2.4
In week 2026-01, 178 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 104 times; entry prices implied 114.8. Whales did no better than the price (-6.1 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 147 | 92 | 99.2 | -4.9 pts |
| Economy | 31 | 12 | 15.6 | -11.6 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $414.6k 8.0× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $395.9k 7.6× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $310.2k 6.0× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 92¢ | $234.4k 4.5× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $221.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 94.3¢ | $200.0k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $200.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 96.1¢ | $199.9k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 89¢ | $186.7k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $165.5k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 91¢ | $152.4k 2.9× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 92¢ | $150.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 95¢ | $114.2k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 90¢ | $101.8k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 92¢ | $101.4k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 92¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93.3¢ | $100.0k 3.3× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $94.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $94.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $83.7k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $83.7k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $80.7k | called |
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93.3¢ | $80.7k 3.3× usual |
missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $78.1k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 93¢ | $62.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $58.3k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $58.3k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY Yes @ 7¢ | $58.0k | missed |
 US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 61¢ | $52.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 94¢ | $48.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 92¢ | $47.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $46.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $46.0k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $45.9k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $43.9k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL Yes @ 10¢ | $42.8k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 95.8¢ | $41.5k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $40.0k | called |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $39.4k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ | $37.4k | called |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $36.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED BUY Yes @ 7.6¢ | $35.6k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $35.5k | called |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 37¢ | $35.5k | missed |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $35.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $34.7k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | MED SELL Yes @ 36¢ | $33.7k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ | $33.2k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $31.9k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢ | $31.1k | called |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $30.4k | missed |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $30.4k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $30.1k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 96.2¢ | $28.9k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $27.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $26.4k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 91¢ | $25.5k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $25.0k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $25.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $24.9k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $23.8k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $23.3k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $23.3k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $23.2k | called |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $23.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $22.2k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $22.1k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $21.9k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $20.7k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 26¢ | $20.4k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $20.0k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 61¢ | $20.0k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $20.0k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 27¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $20.0k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $19.9k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $19.6k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $19.4k | called |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ | $19.2k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $19.1k | called |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $19.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 7.3¢ | $19.0k | missed |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $19.0k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $18.8k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $18.8k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $18.6k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $18.4k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $18.4k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 91.7¢ | $17.9k | missed |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $17.8k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $17.4k | called |
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