← Wallets
+$1,931No · avg 90¢ → 95.8¢ · $32.2k+$4,800No · avg 78¢ → 97.2¢ · $24.3k+$1,808No · avg 83¢ → 95¢ · $14.3k+$2,138No · avg 66¢ → 94.5¢ · $7,088 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$88No · avg 79¢ → 98¢ · $454
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did -17.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-17.6 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$156.8k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$39.8k
Last 30 days +$1,186 · $3.41M volume · 1,323 trades · since Jul 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$20.4k
Open P&L · 7 positions
+$19.4k
Closed-position win rate
78%
170 closed
Wallet age · markets
830d
176 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +10.0 pts |
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.8 | -26.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $24.9k | excluded |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $22.2k | missed |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $15.2k | called |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $19.4k | called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $27.0k | called |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $36.4k | excluded |
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