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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +7.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+7.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$50.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$5,032
Last 30 days +$0 · $66.8k volume · 11 trades · since Oct 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$5,032
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
372d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +7.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $30.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x780831…