← Wallets
+$1No · avg 71¢ → 90.5¢ · $6
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -1.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-1.4 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$113.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$285.3k
Last 30 days −$5 · $4.19M volume · 3,969 trades · since May 07, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$231.5k
Open P&L · 23 positions
−$53.7k
Closed-position win rate
76%
291 closed
Wallet age · markets
535d
309 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.2 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -7.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95.8¢ | $11.8k | called |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢ | $17.8k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 88¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $24.9k | missed |
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