← Wallets
+$2,959No · avg 84¢ → 96.7¢ · $23.0k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.5 wins, so it did -16.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-16.6 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.5
Flagged volume
$91.5k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$127.0k
Last 30 days +$285 · $332.3k volume · 17 trades · since Oct 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$0
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$141.7k
Closed-position win rate
—
0 closed
Wallet age · markets
387d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | -16.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $11.6k | missed |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $30.0k | called |
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