0x206d…8fb6

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +8.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+$5,563No · avg 88¢ → 97.8¢ · $56.0k Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?+$17No · avg 92¢ → 94.5¢ · $648

Price-adjusted edge

+8.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$46.0k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$9,543

Last 30 days +$924 · $159.1k volume · 173 trades · since Oct 18, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$4,054

Open P&L · 3 positions

+$5,553

Closed-position win rate

80%

5 closed

Wallet age · markets

371d

7 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+8.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$46.0k	92%	371d ago	called

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 92¢$46.0k

LOW 0x206d…8fb6 · 371d ago

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x206d20…