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+$107No · avg 88¢ → 98.9¢ · $972
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did -45.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-45.9 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$106.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$45.0k
Last 30 days −$3 · $558.0k volume · 444 trades · since Dec 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$12.9k
Open P&L · 13 positions
−$32.0k
Closed-position win rate
94%
78 closed
Wallet age · markets
301d
91 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.9 | -45.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $19.0k | missed |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $13.0k | called |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $44.6k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
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