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0xa569…96ec

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did +4.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.3 pts
Called / graded
3/3
Expected from price
2.9
Flagged volume
$392.3k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$35.5k
Last 30 days +$894 · $1.37M volume · 1,518 trades · since Oct 28, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$26.3k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
96%
57 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
71 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy332.9+4.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $23.0k0% 272d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $15.0k0% 275d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ $13.2k98% 275d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.6¢ $10.0k96% 279d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 95.3¢ $19.1k95% 280d agocalled
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $36.7k99% 289d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $49.6k
2.6× usual
99% 296d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $19.7k99% 300d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $19.9k0% 300d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $18.7k98% 304d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $19.0k0% 304d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ $10.8k98% 305d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $21.8k99% 309d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $29.8k99% 316d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $12.9k99% 319d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $29.5k98% 334d agoexcluded
US recession in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $19.2k96% 335d agocalled
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ $12.8k98% 336d agoexcluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?LOW BUY No @ 96¢ $11.5k96% 360d agocalled

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