0x1ce4…fbd1

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.8 wins, so it did +6.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?−$1,129Yes · avg 99¢ → 98.2¢ · $131.0k Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+$4,985No · avg 89¢ → 97.1¢ · $56.8k Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?−$22No · avg 38¢ → 30¢ · $78 Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?+$28Yes · avg 21¢ → 36¢ · $67 Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?−$0Yes · avg 47¢ → 46¢ · $42 Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?−$10Yes · avg 43¢ → 32¢ · $30 Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?+$4Yes · avg 16¢ → 20¢ · $20 Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?+$1Yes · avg 91.5¢ → 97.4¢ · $14

Price-adjusted edge

+6.0 pts

Called / graded

3/3

Expected from price

2.8

Flagged volume

$677.5k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$26.3k

Last 30 days −$798 · $2.70M volume · 1,393 trades · since Nov 24, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$22.4k

Open P&L · 8 positions

+$3,856

Closed-position win rate

46%

132 closed

Wallet age · markets

2160d

134 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	2	2	1.9	+7.1 pts
Other	1	1	1.0	+3.9 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢	$97.3k	97%	353d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$202.2k	100%	353d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	MED BUY No @ 96.1¢	$199.9k	96%	360d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	MED BUY Yes @ 93.2¢	$119.6k	93%	367d ago	called
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.6¢	$58.5k	93%	367d ago	called

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

BUY No @ 97.3¢$97.3k

LOW 0x1ce4…fbd1 · 353d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$202.2k

LOW 0x1ce4…fbd1 · 353d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 96.1¢$199.9k

MED 0x1ce4…fbd1 · 360d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 93.2¢$119.6k

MED 0x1ce4…fbd1 · 367d ago

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?called

BUY Yes @ 92.6¢$58.5k

LOW 0x1ce4…fbd1 · 367d ago

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