← Wallets
−$6,414Yes · avg 25¢ → 3.4¢ · $1,008
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +36.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+36.2 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$33.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$143.8k
Last 30 days −$331 · $1.46M volume · 305 trades · since Jul 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$26.3k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$7,113
Closed-position win rate
0%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
833d
5 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +36.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US recession in 2025? | MED SELL Yes @ 36¢ | $33.7k | called |
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