johndoez

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +11.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?+$8,466No · avg 75¢ → 96.8¢ · $37.7k Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?+$2,762No · avg 87¢ → 97.7¢ · $24.4k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$100Yes · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $18.3k Trump out as President before 2027?+$1,509No · avg 83¢ → 95.7¢ · $11.5k Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+$1,087No · avg 82¢ → 97.1¢ · $6,797 Modi out by June 30, 2027?+$280No · avg 84¢ → 90¢ · $4,538 Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?+$293No · avg 82¢ → 88¢ · $4,375 Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?+$1,069No · avg 62¢ → 97¢ · $2,960

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Same side: 0 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing

Price-adjusted edge

+11.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$36.2k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$136.8k

Last 30 days +$1,675 · $2.03M volume · 1,663 trades · since Jul 21, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$131.7k

Open P&L · 22 positions

+$4,859

Closed-position win rate

69%

150 closed

Wallet age · markets

1550d

162 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+11.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$18.4k	92%	3d ago	pending
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$17.8k	89%	454d ago	called

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?pending

BUY Yes @ 92¢$18.4k

LOW johndoez · 3d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 89¢$17.8k

LOW johndoez · 454d ago

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