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What this means. A wallet put $23.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 51% chance. It won. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$23.0k
BUY Yes @ 51¢ · 45,029 shares
Size ≥ $10kOther
What happened
Wallet 0x8454…31e1 took Yes (buy) for $23.0k at an average 51¢. At that price the market implied a 51% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag called it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $23.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 51¢ means
51%chance the market gave
−104American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 51¢
- Implied odds
- 51.0%
- Size
- $23.0k
- Placed
- Jan 03, 01:15 EST
- Market close
- Jan 03, 07:14 EST
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x8454…31e1
- Tx
- 0xbc2d22ec…
This wallet's graded record
1/1+49.0 pts
expected 0.5 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +49 ptsYes price · entry 51¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $509.8k 6.4× usual |
excluded |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $35.1k | excluded |