← Wallets
+$1,655No · avg 84¢ → 93¢ · $16.7k+$1,626No · avg 84¢ → 94.8¢ · $14.1k−$435No · avg 84¢ → 82¢ · $13.9k+$353No · avg 94.6¢ → 97.5¢ · $12.1k+$6No · avg 91.5¢ → 91.5¢ · $11.9k+$250No · avg 92.1¢ → 94.5¢ · $9,984 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$875No · avg 86¢ → 94.5¢ · $9,186−$737No · avg 90¢ → 82¢ · $8,245 · 1 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did -29.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-29.1 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.9
Flagged volume
$213.5k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$212.3k
Last 30 days +$14.4k · $32.53M volume · 56,446 trades · since Jul 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$584.0k
Open P&L · 235 positions
+$9,937
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
822d
3624 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.9 | -29.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Elimination Round | LOW BUY Team Yandex @ 98.7¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
 UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Gabriel Bonfim @ 99¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $15.8k | excluded |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $11.9k | called |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $15.5k | missed |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢ | $14.1k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
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