← Wallets
+$46.5kNo · avg 50¢ → 90.3¢ · $104.2k+$7,582No · avg 84¢ → 95.8¢ · $62.7k+$28.3kNo · avg 52¢ → 98¢ · $59.8k+$26.0kNo · avg 53¢ → 97.4¢ · $56.6k+$927No · avg 96.3¢ → 98.2¢ · $46.4k+$2,377No · avg 89¢ → 97.6¢ · $28.5k+$3,169No · avg 86¢ → 96.9¢ · $28.2k+$1,284No · avg 90.6¢ → 95.5¢ · $25.0k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did -24.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-24.5 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$341.2k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$7k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russ at 64¢) and the edge is -39.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 69% · n=2
80–100¢
33% vs 95% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$174.9k
Last 30 days +$14.9k · $3.68M volume · 3,265 trades · since May 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$136.9k
Open P&L · 29 positions
+$40.4k
Closed-position win rate
83%
296 closed
Wallet age · markets
523d
297 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 2 | 3.6 | -39.7 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +36.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 75¢ | $11.3k | called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $45.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $17.0k | missed |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $42.9k | called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $55.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $50.2k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
 Trump out as President by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED BUY No @ 85¢ | $37.5k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $25.0k | called |
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