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What this means. A wallet put $20.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 96% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$20.0k
BUY No @ 96¢ · 20,840 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet forinnerpsandr1x11222 took No (buy) for $20.0k at an average 96¢. At that price the market implied a 96% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $20.0k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 96¢ means
96%chance the market gave
−2400American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 96¢
- Implied odds
- 96.0%
- Size
- $20.0k
- Placed
- May 07, 04:07 EDT
- Market close
- May 08, 16:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- forinnerpsandr1x11222
- Tx
- 0x634e3f39…
This wallet's graded record
3/5-24.5 pts
expected 4.2 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -96 ptsNo price · entry 96¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $519.1k 18.1× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $199.8k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $2.09M 45.5× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $492.9k 5.9× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $140.7k 8.3× usual |
excluded |