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What this means. A wallet put $492.9k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 100% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has no graded bets yet. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$492.9k
BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ · 493,356 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $250kHeavy favorite2 fills in 1hLate (<1h before start)5.9× this wallet's usual betOther
What happened
Wallet tf2 took Yes (buy) for $492.9k at an average 99.9¢. At that price the market implied a 100% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $492.9k+3
Near-certain price-2
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 100¢ means
100%chance the market gave
—American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 99.9¢
- Implied odds
- 99.9%
- Size
- $492.9k
- Placed
- May 09, 15:09 EDT
- Market close
- May 08, 16:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- tf2
- Tx
- 0x1bd3e435…
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $519.1k 18.1× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $199.8k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $2.09M 45.5× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $140.7k 8.3× usual |
excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $120.6k 4.8× usual |
excluded |