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tf2

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$1.65M
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$111.4k
Last 30 days −$1,551 · $24.45M volume · 6,618 trades · since Sep 27, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$390.2k
Open P&L · 106 positions
−$1,501
Closed-position win rate
70%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1123d
449 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $214.7k
2.6× usual
0% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $40.0k0% 129d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $122.2k100% 129d agoexcluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $195.0k
2.3× usual
100% 143d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?MED BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $492.9k
5.9× usual
100% 168d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $13.2k100% 207d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $43.9k100% 207d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $83.7k0% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $151.2k0% 263d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $84.7k100% 266d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ $99.7k100% 269d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $27.3k100% 296d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $65.0k100% 318d agoexcluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $17.2k100% 331d agoexcluded

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