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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.4 wins, so it did -47.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-47.7 pts
Called / graded
2/5
Expected from price
4.4
Flagged volume
$802.7k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$130k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? at 88¢) and the edge is -62.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
40% vs 88% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$82.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.29M volume · 113 trades · since May 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$80.4k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$1,667
Closed-position win rate
72%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
540d
48 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 2 | 4.4 | -47.7 pts |
History
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