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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did +56.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+56.1 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$82.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$232.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.82M volume · 18,703 trades · since Nov 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$232.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
57%
353 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
359 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +56.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94.8¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ | $15.7k | excluded |
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $39.4k 2.4× usual |
called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x858d55…