← Wallets
−$85No · avg 92.7¢ → 92.5¢ · $34.2k−$3,997Yes · avg 68¢ → 50¢ · $11.6k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 5.6 wins, so it did -43.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-43.2 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
5.6
Flagged volume
$1.63M
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$70k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? at 92¢) and the edge is -53.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
50% vs 93% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$56.1k
Last 30 days −$6,924 · $7.17M volume · 1,393 trades · since Nov 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$60.9k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$4,082
Closed-position win rate
89%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
721d
49 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +5.5 pts |
| Other | 4 | 1 | 3.7 | -67.5 pts |
History
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