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+$3No · avg 80¢ → 80¢ · $421
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +5.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.8 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$106.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$10.9k
Last 30 days +$31 · $6.14M volume · 13,141 trades · since Nov 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$161.2k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$397
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
706d
672 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +5.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ | $32.2k | excluded |
 Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96.5¢ | $12.2k | called |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.8¢ | $26.1k | called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 92¢ | $35.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x11e829…