0x59a5…afc8

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +6.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+$1,551No · avg 75¢ → 82¢ · $19.6k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$815Yes · avg 87¢ → 91.5¢ · $17.4k Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?+$566Yes · avg 88¢ → 91.5¢ · $14.1k Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?+$29Yes · avg 94.9¢ → 95.3¢ · $6,683 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House+$120No · avg 90.5¢ → 92.5¢ · $5,550 Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?−$57Yes · avg 88¢ → 88¢ · $5,062 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?+$642No · avg 61¢ → 70¢ · $4,595 Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?+$21Yes · avg 95.9¢ → 96.3¢ · $4,459

Price-adjusted edge

+6.0 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.9

Flagged volume

$181.9k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±16.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$133.8k

Last 30 days +$273 · $7.31M volume · 6,988 trades · since Jan 16, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$144.9k

Open P&L · 19 positions

−$10.8k

Closed-position win rate

88%

217 closed

Wallet age · markets

646d

229 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	2	1.9	+6.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$19.6k	0%	262d ago	excluded
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$22.0k	100%	263d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$12.0k	0%	263d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$24.5k	0%	263d ago	excluded
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$53.5k 2.4× usual	100%	331d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$10.2k	94%	381d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$40.0k	94%	388d ago	called

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$19.6k

LOW 0x59a5…afc8 · 262d ago

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$22.0k

LOW 0x59a5…afc8 · 263d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$12.0k

LOW 0x59a5…afc8 · 263d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$24.5k

LOW 0x59a5…afc8 · 263d ago

Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$53.5k

LOW 0x59a5…afc8 · 331d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 94¢$10.2k

LOW 0x59a5…afc8 · 381d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 94¢$40.0k

LOW 0x59a5…afc8 · 388d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x59a513a782dd4c1a98ef22932c52191129f5afc8"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x59a513a782dd4c1a98ef22932c52191129f5afc8.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x59a513…