0x3c8a…b45a

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +7.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?+$22.7kNo · avg 87¢ → 97.8¢ · $211.5k Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$7,208No · avg 90.3¢ → 95.5¢ · $133.5k Trump out as President before 2027?+$8,253No · avg 85¢ → 95.8¢ · $76.6k Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?+$8,878No · avg 83¢ → 97.2¢ · $60.1k China x Japan military clash before 2027?+$2,510No · avg 91.4¢ → 95.9¢ · $54.2k Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?+$2,277No · avg 88¢ → 96.4¢ · $26.0k Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?+$16No · avg 96.8¢ → 97.5¢ · $2,016

Price-adjusted edge

+7.4 pts

Called / graded

4/4

Expected from price

3.7

Flagged volume

$211.1k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$149.1k

Last 30 days +$6,706 · $2.30M volume · 2,339 trades · since Jun 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$0

Open P&L · 7 positions

+$51.9k

Closed-position win rate

—

0 closed

Wallet age · markets

847d

50 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	4	4	3.7	+7.4 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$30.0k	98%	274d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 93.3¢	$100.0k 3.3× usual	93%	374d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$26.4k	93%	406d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$34.7k	92%	444d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$20.0k	92%	445d ago	called

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 97.6¢$30.0k

LOW 0x3c8a…b45a · 274d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 93.3¢$100.0k

LOW 0x3c8a…b45a · 374d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 93¢$26.4k

LOW 0x3c8a…b45a · 406d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 92¢$34.7k

LOW 0x3c8a…b45a · 444d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?called

BUY No @ 92¢$20.0k

LOW 0x3c8a…b45a · 445d ago

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