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What this means. A wallet put $30.0k on No, at a price that gave it a 98% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$30.0k
BUY No @ 97.6¢ · 30,726 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteEarly (>24h before close)Other
What happened
Wallet 0x3c8a…b45a took No (buy) for $30.0k at an average 97.6¢. At that price the market implied a 98% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $30.0k+1
Near-certain price-2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 98¢ means
98%chance the market gave
−4131American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 97.6¢
- Implied odds
- 97.6%
- Size
- $30.0k
- Placed
- Jan 22, 17:47 EST
- Market close
- Jan 30, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x3c8a…b45a
- Tx
- 0xa1253644…
This wallet's graded record
4/4+7.4 pts
expected 3.7 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +2 ptsNo price · entry 97.6¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $39.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $53.9k 2.7× usual |
excluded |