Thursday, January 15, 2026

407 whale trades totalling $6.69M from 219 wallets. Biggest: $132.3k sell No on “Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?” at 99.6¢.

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$132.3k 6.7× usual	0%	0x5fbd…fb37	281d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$125.1k 3.0× usual	100%	Pestle	281d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95¢	$111.1k	95%	0xe639…082a	281d ago	called	Trade this
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$105.5k	99%	no1yet	281d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	MED BUY No @ 66¢	$100.0k	66%	0x40e1…973f	281d ago	missed	Trade this
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 69¢	$70.8k 2.5× usual	69%	Magamyman	281d ago	called	Trade this
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$67.5k	100%	Pestle	281d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$64.6k	87%	Alexparker	281d ago	called	Trade this
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 96.4¢	$55.3k	96%	aff3 PROVEN	281d ago	called	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$50.0k	71%	0x40e1…973f	281d ago	missed	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 95.3¢	$48.9k	95%	Pestle	281d ago	called	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 88¢	$48.4k 2.4× usual	12%	twe2nty	281d ago	missed	Trade this
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95.6¢	$45.9k 2.3× usual	96%	0x5fbd…fb37	281d ago	called	Trade this
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 65¢	$44.1k 2.8× usual	35%	tetrose	281d ago	missed	Trade this
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢	$40.1k	1%	Erasmus. PROVEN	281d ago	excluded

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$132.3k

LOW 0x5fbd…fb37 · 281d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$125.1k

LOW Pestle · 281d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95¢$111.1k

MED 0xe639…082a · 281d ago

Trade this

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded

BUY No @ 99¢$105.5k

LOW no1yet · 281d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?missed

BUY No @ 66¢$100.0k

MED 0x40e1…973f · 281d ago

Trade this

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 69¢$70.8k

MED Magamyman · 281d ago

Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$67.5k

LOW Pestle · 281d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 87¢$64.6k

LOW Alexparker · 281d ago

Trade this

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?called

BUY No @ 96.4¢$55.3k

MED PROVEN aff3 · 281d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?missed

BUY No @ 71¢$50.0k

LOW 0x40e1…973f · 281d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY No @ 95.3¢$48.9k

MED Pestle · 281d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed

SELL No @ 88¢$48.4k

MED twe2nty · 281d ago

Trade this

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?called

BUY No @ 95.6¢$45.9k

MED 0x5fbd…fb37 · 281d ago

Trade this

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?missed

SELL No @ 65¢$44.1k

LOW tetrose · 281d ago

Trade this

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? excluded

SELL No @ 98.5¢$40.1k

LOW PROVEN Erasmus. · 281d ago

Most traded markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$2.46M · 161 flags

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$2.28M · 163 flags

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$429.0k · 20 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

$420.1k · 20 flags

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

$187.1k · 10 flags

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?

$185.0k · 4 flags