Monday, April 27, 2026

157 whale trades totalling $11.43M from 121 wallets. Biggest: $1.79M buy No on “US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?” at 99.8¢. 5 of 18 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 10.1 expected (-28.6 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$1.79M 9.0× usual	100%	BenzoateOstylezeneBicarb	180d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$1.12M 15.1× usual	100%	bobe2.1	179d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 99.9¢	$1.05M 3.8× usual	0%	FedWillWin	179d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 99.9¢	$999.0k 3.6× usual	0%	FedWillWin	180d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$993.4k	100%	METROPOLI	179d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	HIGH BUY No @ 98.3¢	$250.5k	98%	0x8bda…3b5d NEW	179d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	MED SELL No @ 99.8¢	$249.5k 6.7× usual	0%	Erasmus. PROVEN	179d ago	excluded
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	MED BUY Thunder @ 48¢	$245.3k	48%	0x4924…3782	179d ago	excluded
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	HIGH SELL No @ 98.7¢	$202.1k	1%	0x9cf6…cac2 NEW	179d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 98.3¢	$152.4k	98%	0x569d…555c NEW	179d ago	excluded
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	MED BUY Nuggets @ 82¢	$132.7k 2.9× usual	82%	texaskid	179d ago	called	Trade this
Lakers vs. Rockets	LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢	$126.0k	0%	noMoohyun523	180d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$115.0k	0%	MiuMiuYan	179d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$100.0k	0%	ElvenWisp	179d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 2.7× usual	0%	rooivalk	180d ago	excluded

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$1.79M

LOW BenzoateOstylezeneBicarb · 180d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$1.12M

LOW bobe2.1 · 179d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$1.05M

MED FedWillWin · 179d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$999.0k

MED FedWillWin · 180d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$993.4k

LOW METROPOLI · 179d ago

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.3¢$250.5k

HIGH New wallet 0x8bda…3b5d · 179d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$249.5k

MED PROVEN Erasmus. · 179d ago

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)excluded

BUY Thunder @ 48¢$245.3k

MED 0x4924…3782 · 179d ago

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$202.1k

HIGH New wallet 0x9cf6…cac2 · 179d ago

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 98.3¢$152.4k

MED New wallet 0x569d…555c · 179d ago

Timberwolves vs. Nuggetscalled

BUY Nuggets @ 82¢$132.7k

MED texaskid · 179d ago

Trade this

Lakers vs. Rocketsexcluded

SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢$126.0k

LOW noMoohyun523 · 180d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$115.0k

LOW MiuMiuYan · 179d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$100.0k

LOW ElvenWisp · 179d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$99.8k

LOW rooivalk · 180d ago

Most traded markets

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

$2.95M · 7 flags

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

$2.05M · 2 flags

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

$1.63M · 11 flags

Pistons vs. Magic

$974.0k · 31 flags

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?

$525.9k · 4 flags

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets

$512.9k · 14 flags