Tuesday, February 10, 2026

113 whale trades totalling $3.37M from 76 wallets. Biggest: $350.0k buy No on “US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?” at 99.9¢. 3 of 6 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 3.0 expected (+0.3 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$350.0k	100%	everbased	255d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$177.2k 6.6× usual	99%	pwnatorul	256d ago	excluded
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)	MED BUY Rockets @ 56¢	$168.0k 5.4× usual	56%	gmanas	255d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$130.4k 3.1× usual	99%	Pestle	256d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$103.4k	0%	kgvdotcom	256d ago	excluded
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)	LOW BUY Rockets @ 56¢	$80.0k 3.9× usual	56%	0x1b4d…e246	255d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95¢	$77.9k 2.2× usual	95%	1610desktop	256d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 97¢	$77.6k 3.4× usual	97%	GoriIIa PROVEN	255d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$75.4k 2.9× usual	0%	0xa9e8…c443	255d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$74.3k 2.2× usual	96%	IlIIllIIIllIIl	256d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 83¢	$65.9k	17%	0x889e…09e0	255d ago	called	Trade this
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$61.2k 2.3× usual	99%	0xa9e8…c443	256d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	MED SELL No @ 91.5¢	$56.4k	8%	0x889e…09e0	255d ago	missed	Trade this
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$53.8k	78%	0x16b1…af6e	256d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$51.8k	100%	DonaldinhoTrumpito	255d ago	excluded

US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$350.0k

LOW everbased · 255d ago

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February?excluded

BUY No @ 98.8¢$177.2k

LOW pwnatorul · 256d ago

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)excluded

BUY Rockets @ 56¢$168.0k

MED gmanas · 255d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.1¢$130.4k

LOW Pestle · 256d ago

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$103.4k

LOW kgvdotcom · 256d ago

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)excluded

BUY Rockets @ 56¢$80.0k

LOW 0x1b4d…e246 · 255d ago

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 95¢$77.9k

MED 1610desktop · 256d ago

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 97¢$77.6k

MED PROVEN GoriIIa · 255d ago

US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$75.4k

LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 255d ago

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 96¢$74.3k

LOW IlIIllIIIllIIl · 256d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?called

SELL No @ 83¢$65.9k

MED 0x889e…09e0 · 255d ago

Trade this

US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.1¢$61.2k

LOW 0xa9e8…c443 · 256d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?missed

SELL No @ 91.5¢$56.4k

MED 0x889e…09e0 · 255d ago

Trade this

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 78¢$53.8k

LOW 0x16b1…af6e · 256d ago

US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$51.8k

LOW DonaldinhoTrumpito · 255d ago

Most traded markets

US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?

$974.2k · 24 flags

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

$410.2k · 11 flags

Spread: Rockets (-7.5)

$364.5k · 8 flags

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

$358.0k · 16 flags

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February?

$243.2k · 5 flags

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

$208.7k · 6 flags