Sunday, January 18, 2026

339 whale trades totalling $7.47M from 192 wallets. Biggest: $1.77M buy No on “Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?” at 99.7¢. 5 of 7 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 4.9 expected (+1.7 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.7¢	$1.77M 36.4× usual	100%	scottxia1988	278d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	HIGH SELL No @ 67¢	$148.8k	33%	0x40e1…973f	278d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96.1¢	$145.8k	96%	0xad96…d498	278d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.9¢	$100.6k	96%	0xe639…082a	278d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.9¢	$67.9k 2.4× usual	96%	0x6d77…b72c	279d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.7¢	$65.1k 3.0× usual	96%	scottilicious PROVEN	278d ago	called	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢	$62.9k	97%	scottxia1988	278d ago	called	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 92¢	$55.2k 2.6× usual	8%	AngryRhino	279d ago	missed	Trade this
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 94.6¢	$52.0k	95%	0x7177…ddef	278d ago	called	Trade this
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$49.9k 2.3× usual	0%	allen114	278d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 95.8¢	$47.9k	4%	0x6e95…1218	279d ago	missed	Trade this
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?	MED BUY No @ 79¢	$46.6k	79%	avenger	278d ago	missed	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED SELL No @ 92¢	$46.0k	8%	0x7177…ddef	278d ago	missed	Trade this
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$42.0k	100%	Pestle	279d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$41.9k	100%	Pestle	279d ago	excluded

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$1.77M

MED scottxia1988 · 278d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?called

SELL No @ 67¢$148.8k

HIGH 0x40e1…973f · 278d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 96.1¢$145.8k

MED 0xad96…d498 · 278d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.9¢$100.6k

MED 0xe639…082a · 278d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.9¢$67.9k

LOW 0x6d77…b72c · 279d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.7¢$65.1k

MED PROVEN scottilicious · 278d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY No @ 96.7¢$62.9k

LOW scottxia1988 · 278d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed

SELL No @ 92¢$55.2k

MED AngryRhino · 279d ago

Trade this

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?called

BUY No @ 94.6¢$52.0k

LOW 0x7177…ddef · 278d ago

Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$49.9k

LOW allen114 · 278d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 95.8¢$47.9k

MED 0x6e95…1218 · 279d ago

Trade this

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed

BUY No @ 79¢$46.6k

MED avenger · 278d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?missed

SELL No @ 92¢$46.0k

MED 0x7177…ddef · 278d ago

Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$42.0k

LOW Pestle · 279d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$41.9k

LOW Pestle · 279d ago

Most traded markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$3.43M · 122 flags

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$1.92M · 133 flags

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$599.6k · 17 flags

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

$225.8k · 9 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

$155.9k · 6 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

$148.8k · 1 flags