Saturday, January 17, 2026

485 whale trades totalling $7.86M from 261 wallets. Biggest: $437.0k buy Yes on “No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?” at 96¢. 14 of 19 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 14.5 expected (-2.7 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 96¢	$437.0k 4.5× usual	96%	0xe639…082a	279d ago	called	Trade this
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	MED BUY No @ 95¢	$170.6k 6.9× usual	95%	0x4488…e319	279d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 95.1¢	$95.1k 4.0× usual	5%	schizohedgehog	280d ago	missed	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.8¢	$87.5k	96%	MiuMiuYan	279d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.4¢	$78.3k	95%	0xe639…082a	279d ago	called	Trade this
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$60.0k	100%	Pestle	279d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$59.2k	100%	Pestle	279d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 95.6¢	$47.2k 2.4× usual	4%	GroyperFinancialServices	279d ago	missed	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 95.7¢	$43.0k	96%	0x6d77…b72c	279d ago	called	Trade this
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$36.7k	100%	madril	279d ago	excluded
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$36.7k	0%	madril	279d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$36.5k	100%	madril	279d ago	excluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$36.5k	0%	madril	279d ago	excluded
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?	MED BUY No @ 90.5¢	$36.2k 2.4× usual	90%	DickTurbin	279d ago	called	Trade this
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 91.5¢	$33.3k	91%	TexMexTRex	279d ago	called	Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 96¢$437.0k

MED 0xe639…082a · 279d ago

Trade this

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 95¢$170.6k

MED 0x4488…e319 · 279d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 95.1¢$95.1k

MED schizohedgehog · 280d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.8¢$87.5k

MED MiuMiuYan · 279d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.4¢$78.3k

LOW 0xe639…082a · 279d ago

Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$60.0k

LOW Pestle · 279d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$59.2k

LOW Pestle · 279d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 95.6¢$47.2k

MED GroyperFinancialServices · 279d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 95.7¢$43.0k

LOW 0x6d77…b72c · 279d ago

Trade this

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$36.7k

LOW madril · 279d ago

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$36.7k

LOW madril · 279d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$36.5k

LOW madril · 279d ago

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$36.5k

LOW madril · 279d ago

Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?called

BUY No @ 90.5¢$36.2k

MED DickTurbin · 279d ago

Trade this

Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?called

BUY No @ 91.5¢$33.3k

LOW TexMexTRex · 279d ago

Trade this

Most traded markets

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$2.87M · 205 flags

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$2.86M · 208 flags

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$955.0k · 16 flags

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

$342.7k · 10 flags

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

$113.4k · 7 flags

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?

$83.8k · 4 flags