Monday, January 19, 2026

65 whale trades totalling $2.13M from 52 wallets. Biggest: $631.7k buy No on “Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?” at 99.9¢. 0 of 1 flags that resolved today called the outcome vs 0.1 expected (-6.4 pts).

Biggest trades

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	Wallet	When	Result
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	MED BUY No @ 99.9¢	$631.7k 7.7× usual	100%	0xce5b…047a	278d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢	$99.1k	96%	0xad96…d498	278d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢	$72.6k	96%	0x889e…09e0	278d ago	called	Trade this
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 96.1¢	$61.4k 4.6× usual	4%	alredond	278d ago	missed	Trade this
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$54.9k 2.8× usual	93%	0x5fbd…fb37	277d ago	called	Trade this
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$49.9k	0%	0xfdd9…8ea6	277d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 96.1¢	$41.3k	4%	ArmageddonRewardsBilly PROVEN	277d ago	missed	Trade this
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$38.4k	98%	4gibg4i3o	278d ago	excluded
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$35.4k	100%	madril	278d ago	excluded
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$35.4k	0%	madril	277d ago	excluded
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$35.3k	100%	madril	277d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$35.2k	100%	madril	277d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?	LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢	$35.1k	0%	madril	277d ago	excluded
Patriots vs. Broncos	LOW BUY Patriots @ 70¢	$35.0k	70%	botbot	277d ago	called	Trade this
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?	MED BUY No @ 83¢	$34.2k	83%	avenger	277d ago	missed	Trade this

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$631.7k

MED 0xce5b…047a · 278d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 96.1¢$99.1k

LOW 0xad96…d498 · 278d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 96.1¢$72.6k

LOW 0x889e…09e0 · 278d ago

Trade this

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 96.1¢$61.4k

MED alredond · 278d ago

Trade this

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?called

BUY No @ 93¢$54.9k

LOW 0x5fbd…fb37 · 277d ago

Trade this

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$49.9k

LOW 0xfdd9…8ea6 · 277d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 96.1¢$41.3k

MED PROVEN ArmageddonRewardsBilly · 277d ago

Trade this

Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?excluded

BUY No @ 97.6¢$38.4k

LOW 4gibg4i3o · 278d ago

Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$35.4k

LOW madril · 278d ago

Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$35.4k

LOW madril · 277d ago

Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$35.3k

LOW madril · 277d ago

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$35.2k

LOW madril · 277d ago

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?excluded

SELL No @ 99.6¢$35.1k

LOW madril · 277d ago

Patriots vs. Broncoscalled

BUY Patriots @ 70¢$35.0k

LOW botbot · 277d ago

Trade this

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?missed

BUY No @ 83¢$34.2k

MED avenger · 277d ago

Trade this

Most traded markets

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$655.7k · 2 flags

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

$350.3k · 9 flags

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?

$153.3k · 9 flags

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

$119.9k · 5 flags

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

$86.3k · 4 flags

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?

$71.5k · 3 flags