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0xce5b…047a

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -32.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-32.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$9.24M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$3,336
Last 30 days −$0 · $87.78M volume · 36,252 trades · since Jun 29, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$6.21M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$13.4k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
482d
7634 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.3-32.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 68¢ $23.8k32% 258d agomissed
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ $64.7k100% 259d agoexcluded
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?LOW BUY No @ 68¢ $10.3k68% 264d agocalled
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?LOW SELL No @ 68¢ $11.6k32% 264d agomissed
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $71.2k100% 264d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $11.7k0% 264d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $199.1k
2.4× usual
0% 264d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ $29.6k99% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $27.9k0% 265d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢ $12.2k1% 265d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $99.3k99% 267d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.8¢ $107.8k0% 269d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $81.3k1% 270d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $54.0k0% 271d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $27.6k0% 271d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $154.9k0% 271d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.9¢ $631.7k
7.7× usual
100% 277d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $24.0k100% 277d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $569.5k
7.0× usual
0% 283d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ $1.21M
14.8× usual
0% 283d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 0.6¢ $10.5k1% 288d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $40.1k99% 288d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.4¢ $205.5k
2.5× usual
1% 290d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.4¢ $412.9k
5.1× usual
1% 290d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $17.5k0% 293d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $112.5k100% 293d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ $491.3k
6.0× usual
100% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $52.4k0% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ $173.1k
2.1× usual
0% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $15.8k100% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $15.8k0% 294d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $16.6k100% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $86.4k100% 294d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $216.2k
2.6× usual
99% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?MED BUY No @ 99.8¢ $343.1k
4.2× usual
100% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?MED SELL No @ 99.8¢ $100.4k0% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?MED SELL No @ 99.8¢ $223.2k
2.7× usual
0% 294d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $88.2k0% 295d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $34.8k0% 295d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ $186.2k
2.3× usual
0% 295d agoexcluded
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $108.7k100% 295d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $67.4k99% 295d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $81.6k1% 295d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.1¢ $58.7k1% 295d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.1¢ $103.6k1% 295d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $58.3k1% 296d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $72.8k99% 296d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $74.0k1% 296d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ $162.3k0% 296d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.7¢ $449.1k
5.5× usual
0% 296d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $90.0k1% 300d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 98.7¢ $282.7k
3.5× usual
1% 300d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $46.0k0% 302d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.6¢ $115.9k0% 302d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $34.6k0% 303d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $11.8k0% 303d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $23.9k0% 304d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY No @ 99.6¢ $342.8k
4.2× usual
100% 304d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.5¢ $567.2k
6.9× usual
0% 304d agoexcluded
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL No @ 99.4¢ $134.7k1% 304d agoexcluded
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢ $94.0k2% 307d agoexcluded
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?missed
SELL Yes @ 68¢$23.8k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 258d ago
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?excluded
BUY No @ 99.5¢$64.7k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 259d ago
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?called
BUY No @ 68¢$10.3k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 264d ago
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?missed
SELL No @ 68¢$11.6k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 264d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$71.2k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 264d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$11.7k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 264d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$199.1k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 264d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.6¢$29.6k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$27.9k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 265d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.5¢$12.2k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 265d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$99.3k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 267d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$107.8k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 269d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$81.3k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 270d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$54.0k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 271d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$27.6k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 271d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$154.9k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 271d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$631.7k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 277d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$24.0k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 277d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$569.5k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 283d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$1.21M
MED 0xce5b…047a · 283d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 0.6¢$10.5k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 288d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$40.1k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 288d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$205.5k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 290d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$412.9k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 290d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$17.5k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 293d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.9¢$112.5k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 293d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$491.3k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$52.4k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$173.1k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$15.8k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$15.8k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$16.6k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$86.4k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$216.2k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.8¢$343.1k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$100.4k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$223.2k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 294d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$88.2k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 295d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$34.8k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 295d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$186.2k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 295d ago
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$108.7k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 295d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.2¢$67.4k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 295d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$81.6k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 295d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$58.7k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 295d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.1¢$103.6k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 295d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.9¢$58.3k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 296d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.9¢$72.8k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 296d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.9¢$74.0k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 296d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$162.3k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 296d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$449.1k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 296d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$90.0k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 300d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$282.7k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 300d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$46.0k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 302d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$115.9k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 302d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$34.6k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 303d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$11.8k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 303d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$23.9k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 304d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.6¢$342.8k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 304d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.5¢$567.2k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 304d ago
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$134.7k
MED 0xce5b…047a · 304d ago
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 98.5¢$94.0k
LOW 0xce5b…047a · 307d ago

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