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What this means. A wallet put $412.9k on not No, at a price that gave it a 1% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$412.9k
SELL No @ 99.4¢ · 415,440 shares in 21 fills
Size ≥ $250kUnderdog side21 fills in 1hEarly (>24h before close)5.1× this wallet's usual betEconomy
What happened
Wallet 0xce5b…047a took No (sell) for $412.9k at an average 99.4¢. At that price the market implied a 1% chance for that side. The market resolved No. This trade isn't graded.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $412.9k+3
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
Near-certain price-2
21 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 99.4¢
- Implied odds
- 0.6%
- Size
- $412.9k
- Placed
- Jan 06, 07:14 EST
- Market close
- Jan 27, 19:00 EST
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0xce5b…047a
- Tx
- 0xdad7b38c…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-32.0 pts
expected 0.3 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $17.9k | excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $18.0k | excluded |